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Global crude oil demand to ease on warm climate

Global crude oil demand to ease on warm climate

Paris-based IEA predicts that US shale oil producers will boost their output by 8 million barrels a day between 2010 and 2025, an increase that "would match the highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of oil markets" - rivaling even the massive increase posted by Saudi Arabia between 1966 and 1981. Besides oil barrel prices, the estimate factors in the milder temperatures as winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere.

The difference between supply and demand isn't as tight as "some would like", the IEA added. Though solar power is set to become the cheapest source of new electricity generation and the boom years for coal are over, oil and gas will continue to meet the bulk of the world's energy needs, the IEA said.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.

Along with the expected demand for oil, the IEA said natural gas use is projected to increase by 45 per cent to 2040. "This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a "new normal" for oil prices".

Investors increasingly opted not to bet on higher oil prices, following a report from the International Energy Agency showing it expects rising United States shale oil and gas production to at least be among the biggest gains in the history of the industry.




"I think this group of committed and responsible producers came together. and I think they will continue to do what it takes to take us to the next level", he said at an worldwide oil conference.

Production fell by 470,000 barrels a day compared with October 2016 as OPEC supply fell sharply - 80,000 barrels per day - and total cartel output of 32.53 million barrels a day was 830,000 barrels a day less than a year ago.

A study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts that pure electric vehicles would achieve a global penetration of 12 per cent in 2025, 34 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2050.

The forecasts are also underpinned by some major assumptions: The report assumes that governments stick to promises they've made on energy, including pledges by India and China to move away from fossil fuels. Indeed, the IEA also suggests that demand for oil will remain supported by lower prices, going forward.


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