Markets

OPEC Oil Production Gets a Haircut

OPEC Oil Production Gets a Haircut

"Overall, there are a few reasons for confidence - compliance from OPEC - and it seems likely they'll extend the cut", Jasper Lawler - a market strategist at London Capital Group - said, referring to the output deal due to expire in March.

"The recent price support, namely the tension in the Middle East, has been swept aside as rising rig counts and US shale output (are) in the focus of traders", PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.

Brent crude oil prices dipped below $63 a barrel today as the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its oil demand forecast down due to mild early winter temperatures and rising production from some countries.

OPEC members were reportedly forming a consensus around extending by nine months their production cuts deal with other crude exporters.

Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.

Investors already are assuming Opec and its allied producers will agree at the end of this month to extend the limits well beyond their March expiration, Morse said at a gathering of energy economists in Houston on Monday.

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The IEA on Tuesday delivered a surprisingly downbeat outlook for oil demand in its monthly market report, showing an expected slowdown in consumption that was at odds with a more bullish view from OPEC on Monday.

Another possible outcome of November's OPEC meeting is the delay of the decision that everyone seems to expect. The oil market is rebalancing at an accelerating pace, as global levels of oil inventories have fallen visibly, and the demand for oil is robust, Opec Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo affirmed.

The country's total exports declined by 9 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the first seven months of this year, to 197.08 million barrels from 216.46 million barrels.

A year ago this week, markets reeled from the surprise election of USA president Donald Trump, and eagerly awaited OPEC's November meeting as the last hope for an oil price rally.

Tensions in the Middle East have raised the prospect of disruptions, but it was unclear whether a strong quake that hit Iran and Iraq on Sunday had affected the region's oil production. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $56.78 per barrel, up 4 cents.

Middle East tensions grew over the weekend, fueling expectations of supply disruptions in the region after Bahrain said Iran was behind an explosion to its main oil pipeline.

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